Construction
workers are seen at a distance in a section of Ethiopia's
Grand Renaissance Dam, as it undergoes construction, in Benishangul Gumuz
Region, Guba Woreda, in Ethiopia,
March 31, 2015. (photo by REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri)
Cairo
— Controversy prevailed in the Egyptian public opinion, after
Deltares, a Dutch advisory institute, announced on Sept. 15
its withdrawal from a study to assess the risks that the Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam, which is under construction on the Blue Nile, can cause to Egypt and Sudan. The withdrawal from the project by
Deltares has been met by a wave of objections in Egypt for fear that this could
further obstruct the completion of the study, which was supposed to be completed last March — at the time, the research hadn't
even started yet. Ethiopia, on the other hand, has completed 47% of the required work on the dam and is preparing to inaugurate and
operate the
first stage in October 2016. This initial operation threatens to reduce Egypt’s share of
the Nile waters, currently standing about 55.5 billion cubic meters,
by 14.5 billion cubic meters.
Deltares
justified its withdrawal in a statement posted on its website Sept. 15, saying that the
conditions as imposed by the Tripartite National Committee and BRL Group, a
French consultancy firm that is also carrying out a study alongside Deltares
before the latter withdrew, on how the study should be carried out did not
provide sufficient guarantees that the results delivered would be unbiased and
accurate.
The
negotiations between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, on the one hand, and
Deltares and BRL, on the other, failed to resolve the differences over the
tasks to be carried out by Deltares and BRL in order to conduct the planned
study. BRL, which is required to conduct 70% of the study, made an offer where
it monopolizes the study and turns Deltares into a subcontractor that performs
the tasks delegated to it by BRL, which Deltares has
rejected.
Egyptian
Minister of Irrigation Hossam Maghazi told Al-Monitor that the Egyptian
government confirms that it is confident Ethiopia will abide by the agreement
of principles between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on Ethiopia's Grand
Renaissance Dam, which was signed by Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam
Desalegn, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Sudanese President Omar
al-Bashir in Khartoum last March, to not cause any damage to Egypt in the
operation of the Renaissance Dam.
Yet
former Egyptian Minister of Irrigation Mohamed Nasr Eldin Allam told Al-Monitor
that there is a loophole in the provisions of the agreement of principles,
which is resulting in Ethiopia
not abiding by the agreement with Egypt in terms of operating the dam
and the date of the first filling of the Renaissance Dam reservoir. The
agreement stipulates that Ethiopia
wait 15 months from the start of the study before starting to fill the tank. Ethiopia is
getting ready to fill the tank while the study has not commenced yet. Allam
said that this will pose a threat to Egypt’s share of the water in case the dam was operated
without this study.
Article 5 of the agreement, which is on the principle to
cooperate on the first filling and operation of the dam, stipulates “to
implement the recommendations of the International Panel of Experts [IPOE],
respect the final outcomes of the final report, and agree on the guidelines and
rules on the first filling of the dam, which the owner of the dam may adjust
from time to time, and inform the downstream countries of any unforeseen or
urgent circumstances requiring adjustments in the operation of the dam, in a
timeline of 15 months from the inception of the two studies recommended by the
IPOE.”
Allam
accused the Egyptian negotiator of killing time to the advantage of Ethiopia and asked why the study is planned to
take place while Ethiopia
is already preparing for the opening of the first stage of the dam and has
already completed a significant part of the construction.
According
to water experts in
Egypt, the operation of the first stage of the Renaissance Dam and the filling
of the first part of the lake with an estimated 14.5 billion cubic meters means
that Egypt's share of the water will be reduced by 14.5 billion cubic meters,
which can irrigate 3 million feddan (3.1 million acres). Moreover, Ethiopia’s
completion of the dam construction and decision to completely fill the lake,
with a reservoir capacity and evaporation rate of up to 90 billion cubic
meters, means that it will hold 30 billion cubic meters of water flood every
year to fill it. This will cause Lake
Nasser to dry completely,
and therefore the electricity generation using the Aswan Dam will be halted.
In
this regard, Maghazi said, “Who is paying attention to the importance of
completing the study when the dam is under construction and the first stage is
scheduled to operate next year? The study that was set to be conducted with Ethiopia has
nothing to do with the building designs of the dam as a facility. Yet we are
discussing and studying the dam’s large storage capacity, which Egypt rejects.”
Maghazi
stressed that the study will determine the damage that could be inflicted on Egypt as a
result of storage capacity, as well as the operating mechanism to avoid such
damage.
For
his part, Alaa Yassin, Egyptian government spokesman for the Renaissance Dam
file, told Al-Monitor, “We are acting in several directions to resolve the
differences between Deltares and BRL and resume the required studies on the
Renaissance Dam. Yet there are no guarantees that there might be a solution,
honestly.”
He
added, “Time is being wasted. It is in the advantage of one of the sides to
stall, while time is a pressure factor for the Egyptian side.” Yassin concluded
that the agreement of principles requires that Ethiopia
agree with Egypt
on the rules to operate the first stage. He did not deny that the article stipulates
that this takes place in a timeline of 15 months from the inception of the
studies.
Cairo is currently engaged in the development of several
alternatives to overcome the crisis of attrition, as more than a year has
passed without the inception of the study. This has prompted Egypt to call on Addis Ababa
and Khartoum to
hold an urgent meeting, which may take place at the end of October, to resolve the differences between the
companies in charge of the study and to convince Deltares to retract its
decision to withdraw and to carry out the tasks to complete the study.
Is it the end? Wake up
Egyptian
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